U.S. eCommerce Market Poised for $2 Trillion Growth by 2030 as Mobile and AI Reshape Retail Landscape

The U.S. eCommerce market continues to expand at a record pace, driven by the convergence of mobile technology, generative AI, and new retail infrastructure designed for speed and personalization. According to Mordor Intelligence, U.S. eCommerce is projected to grow from $1.25 trillion in 2025 to $2.08 trillion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 10.7 percent. This growth represents not just numerical expansion but a fundamental redefinition of how consumers discover, evaluate, and buy products as mobile and AI merge convenience with intelligence.

Mobile commerce now drives the majority of online checkouts in the U.S., while generative AI is improving conversion rates by aligning search intent with product discovery. At the same time, eCommerce sales climbed 7.5% year-over-year in 2024, reaching $1.1 trillion, and now represent 16.3% of all U.S. retail sales, according to Digital Commerce 360 and the U.S. Census Bureau. The integration of generative AI is bridging the gap between consumer awareness and purchasing action, helping consumers find what they actually want while enabling brands to tell their stories in ways that resonate faster and more authentically.

Amazon remains the dominant force in this evolving landscape, holding roughly 40% of the U.S. eCommerce market, nearly triple the combined online sales of its next three competitors. However, Walmart is quickly closing the gap, reporting 23% year-over-year growth in online sales in 2024 and more than $120 billion in digital revenue. The growth of major players like Amazon, Walmart, and emerging competitors such as Temu is setting new standards for logistics and personalization while simultaneously creating opportunities for smaller, high-quality brands that can demonstrate readiness across compliance and category alignment before entering the market.

The strategic readiness of brands will define success in the coming decade as the lines between digital and physical retail continue to blur. Success in today's eCommerce environment requires orchestration across multiple platforms, with winners being those who synchronize data, fulfillment, and storytelling across every channel consumers use. The evolution toward integrated retail experiences means companies can no longer treat online and physical retail as separate worlds, requiring comprehensive strategies that address both digital discovery and traditional retail placement to achieve sustainable growth in the rapidly expanding market.