The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has forecast that Hong Kong's exports will grow by between 8% and 9% in 2026, a projection detailed in its annual Export Outlook report. This anticipated growth follows a better-than-expected export performance in 2025 and is set to be driven largely by robust demand for artificial intelligence-related electronics products. According to the findings of the recently released HKTDC 4Q25 Export Confidence Index, 53.2% of exporters identified rising demand for AI and new technology-related electronic consumer goods as the factor most likely to boost their 2026 business. This focus is crucial given that the electronics sector overall accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong's total export value.
These positive figures are notable given the high year-on-year comparison base from 2025, a period when many exporters frontloaded orders to complete shipments before the imposition of anticipated US tariffs. Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, noted that while 2025 was a year of heightened uncertainty, 2026 should bring greater clarity on global trade. She stated that with the Chinese Mainland and the US having reached a trade agreement in November, US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters' three biggest concerns for 2026. However, Fan acknowledged that uncertainties remain, as business leaders worldwide may reorganize activities to optimize cost advantages due to varying tariff levels on US imports from different countries.
Outlining implications for the Asia-Pacific region, Fan explained that Chinese Mainland exports to the US will be subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff rate until November 2026. This comparatively low additional tariff places China-based suppliers, many with mature and highly productive supply chains, on par with their Southeast Asian counterparts while giving them a significant advantage over countries subject to higher rates. The full details of the outlook are available in the Hong Kong 2026 Export Outlook report at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODc2Mzk2Nw.
Hong Kong's anticipated 2026 export expansion is underpinned by the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25, also released today. Both the Current Performance Index (51.4) and the Expectation Index (51.9) have remained above the 50-point watershed level, indicating expected future export growth. Kenneth Lee, Head of the HKTDC Research's Special Project and Business Advisory Section, commented that for expansion plans over the next two years, Asia remains the primary focus. For 42.0% of respondents, the Chinese Mainland was the highest priority market, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%). By industry, exporters in almost every sector viewed scaling up activities on the Chinese Mainland as their priority.
A more detailed analysis of the survey highlights positive prospects for both individual markets and most of Hong Kong's key industry sectors. According to the Market Expectation Sub-Index, the Chinese Mainland (57.2) and the ASEAN bloc (57.0) are still considered to have significant growth potential, while the US (down to 38.0) continues to unsettle Hong Kong exporters due to uncertainties in its trade environment. Among individual industries, several sectors have expansionary expectations for the year ahead, with Jewellery (54.8) topping the list, followed by Electronics (52.4), Timepieces (51.6), and Equipment/Materials (51.1). The complete index findings can be reviewed at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODYyNTQwNw.
Despite overall positive sentiments, the survey also points to potential challenges ahead. Most notably, it cited rising labour and production costs (53.9%), growing logistics challenges (38.8%), and declining overseas orders due to the general economic slowdown (38.2%) as potential future concerns for Hong Kong exporters.
