Copper's rally has been fueled by an abrupt shift into a supply deficit after a cluster of major disruptions forced the market to replace faster than expected, according to a Sprott report. A string of setbacks across the industry is compounding the problem that is estimated to last through 2026. The market impact of these disruptions is amplified by a broader truth about copper: supply reliability has always been an issue. Historically, unplanned outages average about 5% of global supply. In prior years, this could have been absorbed more easily. Today, however, it comes at a time when inventories are fragmented, and the market has less flexibility to balance regional tightness, raising the odds that even incremental disruptions push prices higher.
Artificial intelligence is fast becoming the defining technology of our time. A new UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report projects the global AI market will soar from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033 - a 25-fold increase in just a decade. By then, AI could quadruple its share of the global frontier technology market, rising from 7% to 29% and emerging as the sector's dominant force. Demand drivers for copper also include the needed construction for artificial intelligence data centers and the electrification it will bring. At the backbone of the huge industrial projects will be copper, which is likely to eclipse that of traditional uses. Also, aiding demand is the forecast that construction for nonresidential and residential projects is to grow by 4% to $1.26 trillion in an easing interest-rate environment, motivating builders, according to Glass Magazine.
Copper mining companies are a way for investors to play the metal and can potentially offer some advantages over the metal itself. Sprott Copper Miners ETF (NASDAQ: COPP) and Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (NASDAQ: COPJ) offer that exposure. As of Feb. 18, COPP has attracted $284 million in assets under management since launching in March 2024. COPP carries an expense ratio of 0.65%, while COPJ has $198 million in AUM and carries a 0.75% expense ratio. COPP launched in March 2024 and has seen its share price surge from $16.22 to more than $46 a share and COPJ has seen similar returns from its launch in February 2023, from $16.22 to $46.66 a share as of February 23, according to Benzinga data.
There are about 73 nuclear power projects currently being constructed throughout the world, and another 117 are being planned. The majority of those are being built in Asia and primarily in China, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA). The association also says there are currently 436 nuclear power plants operating in 31 countries. There are also some 30 countries strongly considering planning or starting nuclear programs, according to the WNA. The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (NYSE:URNM) will be one to watch, as uranium is obviously a critical material needed for nuclear plants, and the new plants to come online will only increase the demand for the material.
Over the last year, Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:SGDJ) outperformed the metal as reflected in SPDR Gold Shares by more than two-to-one, with SGDJ rising 176% compared to GLD's return of 73%, according to Stockcharts.com. Gold has been gaining prominence as the globally accepted neutral reserve asset, reinforcing its role as a hedge against systemic risk and geopolitical uncertainty. Junior gold miners ETFs such as SGDJ focus on smaller companies that concentrate on exploring land for new gold deposits. When gold prices rise, junior mining companies may experience increased investor interest, as their business models are often linked to the exploration and development of potential gold resources. Historically, metals flowed freely to regions of highest demand, balancing global inventories through transparent exchanges such as the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Today, this mechanism is fracturing as geopolitical tensions, resource nationalism and tariff walls disrupt the free movement of metals.
Lithium is often overlooked by investors in the metal sector, despite its ever-growing usage in electric vehicles, which may continue as more regulation of combustion engines continues. Grandview Research projects a 32.5% increase in EV sales between 2025 and 2030. Many countries are encouraging EVs with subsidies and tax benefits. Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (NASDAQ: LITP), which is driven by electric vehicle adoption and energy storage demand, offers targeted exposure to companies across the lithium mining supply chain. Similarly, the Sprott Critical Materials ETF (NASDAQ: SETM) provides broad access to companies involved across the battery metals and materials supply chain, including lithium, nickel, copper, graphite and rare earths. This fund features not only mining, but specific processing and enabling technologies, which is a more balanced way to participate in lithium demand without relying on a single commodity cycle.
