The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has substantially raised its forecast for Hong Kong's merchandise export growth in 2026 to 42%-47%, up from earlier projections, citing stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies. The revision underscores the outsized role of technology in Hong Kong's trade performance and points to a deeper structural transformation of the territory's export profile. The latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index (3Q26) shows exporter sentiment remains broadly positive, with the Current Performance Index at 51.8 and the Expectation Index at 51.3, both above the neutral 50 mark. The findings are detailed in the HKTDC's updated report on Hong Kong's 2026 Export Outlook.
AI-driven electronics have exceeded expectations, with electronics accounting for approximately 80% of Hong Kong's total exports in the first eight months of 2026 and rising 52.8% year-on-year. HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang attributed the surge to rapid acceleration in global demand for AI-related products and infrastructure, noting that semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, and telecommunications equipment expanded far faster than anticipated. Major markets included the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN, and the US, reflecting strong demand across global technology supply chains. The strong performance is not confined to cutting-edge technology items; exports of conventional electronic parts and components have also remained robust, supported by active regional manufacturing networks spanning the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN. HKTDC Deputy Director of Research Wing Chu highlighted that these networks have kept trade flows throughout Asia exceptionally strong, demonstrating the resilience of regional production and supply chains. Sentiment toward both ASEAN and the Chinese Mainland remains firmly positive, according to the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 3Q26.
Despite new US trade measures, including an additional 12.5% Section 301 tariff imposed in July on imports from several trading partners, Hong Kong's exports to the United States rose 63.4% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026. Pang noted that a substantial share of US-bound exports consists of products covered by tariff exemption arrangements, particularly in technology and electronics, limiting the direct impact. He also pointed to the September Xi-Trump meeting, the extension of the trade truce until January 2027, and the US$30 billion Reciprocal Tariff Reduction Arrangement as factors that provide a welcome period of stability and reduce the risk of further tariff escalation. These developments, combined with resilient global technology demand, are expected to underpin Hong Kong's export performance in the months ahead.
Beyond cyclical demand, Hong Kong's trade profile is shifting toward high-value, technology-intensive products such as integrated circuits, computer parts, and advanced telecommunications equipment. This shift has increased reliance on air freight, leveraging Hong Kong's extensive air cargo network and land transport connectivity with advanced manufacturing clusters in Southern China. Chu described the transformation as Hong Kong's evolution from a traditional trading gateway into a high-value-added international trade and supply chain management centre, a theme explored in the HKTDC research on Hong Kong's Evolution into a High Value-Added Trade Hub. The HKTDC, which celebrates its 60th anniversary this year, continues to promote Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and business hub through its Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) network of over 50 offices worldwide. It organizes international exhibitions, conferences, and business missions to create opportunities for companies, particularly SMEs. For further insights, the HKTDC provides research reports and digital news channels, with more information available at www.hktdc.com/aboutus.
