Modern conflict has expanded beyond traditional military engagements to include cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, election interference, and economic coercion. Dr. Teija Tiilikainen, director of the European Center of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE), recently discussed these evolving threats on the NatSec Tech podcast, produced by the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP).
Hybrid threats are defined by Hybrid CoE as "a mixture of different tools used against democracies, against the democratic principle, against democratic practices in our societies to undermine trust in government," Tiilikainen explained. These tools are employed by authoritarian regimes to consolidate their own power. What makes them particularly challenging is that "the whole logic of these threats is to surprise us unprepared." The toolkit includes cyber and information operations, election interference, instrumentalized migration, and attacks on critical infrastructure such as energy grids and data cables.
Artificial intelligence has significantly raised the stakes. AI "is a huge tool to affect the so-called cognitive sphere, our understanding of reality," Tiilikainen said. When threat actors deploy AI ahead of elections or on social media, "we don't know with whom we are communicating." Increasingly, "we don't necessarily recognize the real actors from AI produced actors." While AI may eventually help defenders, for now attackers hold the advantage.
The information space is particularly dangerous. In the context of the Russian war against Ukraine, Tiilikainen noted that perceptions of the conflict vary widely due to "efficient and successful Russian disinformation campaigns." Information is "a very dangerous tool in the hands of hybrid threat actors," amplifying the impact of other tools.
Principal state actors include Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, often operating through proxies such as criminals, hackers, extremists, and even unwitting citizens. Attribution is "very, very difficult," and this is a key asset for threat actors.
Countering hybrid threats "all starts with our broad societal resilience," Tiilikainen emphasized. Proactive measures include international sanctions and publicly naming responsible states. "China, for instance, is still quite keen on maintaining its reputation as a responsible international actor," she said.
Education is also crucial. Tiilikainen highlighted the Nordic and Baltic states, where an informed public helps small countries defend themselves, and cited Ukraine and Taiwan as examples of using transparency to expose disinformation. The private sector must engage as well, since much critical infrastructure is privately owned.
Hybrid threats are dangerous because they are hard to detect and test vulnerabilities with larger conflict in mind. "We have the old saying that this is about preparing the battlefield," she said. "From that point of view the threat to democracies can be very existential."
While progress has been made—"I see resilience being strengthened"—more is needed to prepare for "the malign use of modern technologies." Failure to do so would "weaken the credibility of the democratic principles."
For more information, visit csp.ai.
